Utani B'yan state poll favours Democrat win
Saturday, August 23rd, 302 AP
Web posted at 0952 UST.
A comprehensive poll of the residents of Utania's southernmost state, Utani B'yan, published today strongly favours a Democrat-lead government will replace Governor Hubert Artos Peoples government.
Dr Francis Knowles, the state Democratic Party leader, is set to become the state's first non-Peoples Party governor in ten years, as polls indicate he will win a narrow lead over embattled Governor Artos.
Artos is suffering from the ill-winds of corruption within his government, that claimed three ministers last year, and Knowles is pushing corruption as the single most important issue of the coming campaign.
The poll suggests a wide coalition of Democrats, Progressives, Conservatives, Liberal Nationalists and Cruisian Democrats would for an 86 member governing coalition over 79 opposition MPs. The current Peoples-Utani Saedaj-Republican government would win only 77 of those seats, down from the 86 they currently hold.
Poll ResultsThe greatest losses, according to the poll, will be in Utan Krysaror, the federal capital, where 26 of the 41 available seats would go to the Democrat-lead coalition. Agraam and Shecker, the other two major cities in the state, would be evenly split between the Peoples and Democrat lead coalitions, and the rural electorates of the state marginally pro-government.
"It is certainly in Utan Krysaror that the Democrats have made their headway in undermining the Artos government", says political analyst David Shaw. "And I think this city will determine the winner of the election."
Clearly the Yannists are the biggest losers according to the poll, with a complete loss of all eight of their seats. Mr Shaw says this is due to the pro-independence policies of the Yannists coming to fruition.
"I think the Yannist cry of independence from the Empire, which has now been achieved, and the broad acceptance of a dual-culture nation -- Utani and Uta-Decashi -- has negated the need for a more radical independence party, like the Yannists."
The Utani Saedaj Party (USP) increases its share of the vote, taking most Yannist votes, and Yannist seats in the Legislative Assembly.
The Liberals also suffered a complete wipe-out of all five of their seats, in their place the liberal-conservative Burovians have increased their appeal, winning 1.7% of the state vote and collecting 2 seats in the Legislative Assembly.
The clear winners are the Democrats themselves, who increase their share of the popular vote to 24% and collect 59 seats in the Assembly, up from 17 in the previous election. The Peoples Party reflect almost the same in reverse, dropping from 59 to 36 seats. The Liberal Nationalists drop from 17 to 9 seats, and the Cruisian-Democrats drop from nine to five seats.
In the popular stakes, clearly the right-wing parties lead the pack, with the combined support for the Conservatives (Con), Cruisian-Democrats (CDP), Liberal Nationalists (LNP), Democrats (Dem) and Utani Progressives (UPP) hold more than 50% of the popular vote, the current government -- Peoples Party (PPP), Utani Saedaj (USP) and Republicans (Rep) having only 40%.
Can the Democrats hold it together?However, there is some concern about the shape of the federal Democrats and whether that conflict is likely to expand or afflict the state Democratic Party. So far, there has not been a declaration that there will be a challenge to federal Democrat leader, Louis Campden.
However, if there is, and this is considered likely, there may well be a state-level challenge for Dr Knowles, which could prove disastrous for the state party's chances of keeping this polled electoral success.
The comprehensive poll sampled at least two hundred voters in each of the thirty seven electorates of the state, and then used those results to calculate the number of seats each party would have won, based on the poll. Utani B'yan state runs the same electoral system as Utania does federally, with multi-member electorates, that is, between three and six MPs being elected from the one electorate, making up the 165 state MPs.
Comprehensive polls are rarely performed due to the large cost involved -- over 7,000 people have been interviewed. The poll also has a 6% margin of error, so several seats could yet change hands.
Utani B'yan state has over 21 million residents and 12.5 million voters, the largest and poorest state in the country -- the mountainous Savana state excluded. It is covered in huge grain farms run mostly by Utani communities who earn the equivalent of a few hundred Crowns per person.