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President will be re-elected

Zeitgeist calls the result: Okarvits to defeat Hope

Sunday, January 12, 302 AP
Web posted at 1402 UST.

Zeitgeist News has made significant headway in the chase for the final tallied results of yesterday's election, and, as expected, the win is to President Okarvits, with Governor Hope to face him in a run-off election.

After last night's disasterous non-result, after the system designed and built to tally the entire country's voting results overloaded and failed, Zeitgeist News sent forth over 300 reporters and agents to voting centres nationwide, to get the result from officials and party officials.

 Presidential landslide?:
Pres. Okarvits34%81
Governor Hope19%39
Kyle Langley13%21
Robert Talin  8%7
Max Boornal  5%7
Cameron Olds10%2
The results have been fed back to Zeitgeist News headquarters where they have been compiled and allow Zeitgeist News to compile a picture of the result before any other news service.

We also fed the results into the Kapur algorithm for determining the likely result of the Presidential run-off based on yesterday's voting results, and Professor Kapur is willing to call the result of the run-off election in a month's time.

EXCLUSIVE for Zeitgeist News

Zeitgeist News' exclusive results, based on counting at between 11pm last night and 10am this morning, show that the President will have won possibly more than half the electoral seats in this election, but is far short of 50% of the popular vote required to avoid a run-off election.

The President appears to have won 34% of the popular vote, and may have won an astounding 81 electoral seats of 157. While the President was expected to win this election by a wide margin, few predicted the margin to be quite this wide.

The strength of his victory appears unmatched in the south and west of the country, where he appears to be already winning all the electoral seats of the electorate, being so far of his rivals.

President Okarvits
Two-term President?
For example, in Savana Tern electorate, which covers much of the south-west of the country, the President is estimated to win 62% of the final vote, which is so far ahead of his nearest rival, Cameron Olds, on 12%, that he will win all four electoral seats for that electorate.

This is how the President will end up winning 81 electoral seats: Zeitgeist News estimates that 65 of them will be in the southern and western electorates.

Other results

Governor Hope will finish this election in a predictable second place, with 19% of the popular vote and 39 electoral seats. While only half the seats of the President, Hope's lead over nearest rival Kyle Langley ensure that he will be challenging the President on February 15th.

The Governor's victories are not expected to be as well-placed in the south and west of the country, but he is expected to strengthen his hold over the two coastal states, Lasanne and Nystonia, where he is projected to win 28 and 21% of the popular vote and a collective 29 electoral seats.

However, the Governor's result will be significantly less than the 53 electoral seats he was predicted to win in the December Zeitgeist magazine poll. Indeed, his 19% of the popular vote is substantially down on the 23% predicted by the Zeitgeist poll.

Kyle Langley will end this election in a safe third place, having 13% of the national popular vote, and winning 21 electoral seats, a substantial improvement over the 15 the December Zeitgeist poll predicted. Langley's campiagning was noted to improve substantially since that poll

Biggest loser

The biggest loser of this election, very surprisingly, seems to be Cameron Olds, the anaemic Democratic Party leader, who is expected to win only two electoral seats, despite winning 10% of the national vote.

This result reflects the strong influence of the limited number of electoral seats allocated to each electorate, making the unique Utanian system reflect its first-past-the-post (FPP) nature. Mr Olds was consistantly outpolled by other candidates in almost all electorates. Having no strong regional base of his own, Mr Olds failed to win electoral seats.

In stark contrast, Max Boornal is expected to win 5% of the national vote, but an incredible 7 electoral seats, however, Boornal's support distribution is concentrated in a handful of electorates around Mulgrave and Waitaki.

Republican Robert Talin is expected to also win 7 electoral seats based on his 8% of the national vote.

Run-off election

The results of this election predictably dictate a presidential run-off election between the President and Governor Hope.

Zeitgeist News has since used the Kapur model for predicting the result of the run-off election. The model, based on these preliminary election results, is predicting a very comfortable victory for the President.

 Predicted result:
Pres. Okarvits53%86
Governor Hope47%71
Using a conservative distribution of third-party votes, President Okarvits is predicted to win 14 million votes over Governor Hope's to 12.5, and 86 over 71 electoral seats.

In addition, based on this distribution, the President will have 16 safe electorates to Hope's 11, and three marginal seats to Hope's two. While these figures seem to suggest the President could still lose, it would require a national swing of 3.5% of the total vote, or 900,000 voters to change the result.

However, in the best possible case situation, it would only require only 2,860 voters in Utan-Nystos, 7,400 in Utan Krysaror, and 7,800 votes in Banyasar to defeat the President.

However, as these are based on only preliminary results, there can be absolutely no faith placed in these predictions just yet.

Zeitgeist News will keep you posted. As news breaks, Zeitgeist News will be there.
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©Zeitgeist Magazine, 303 AP.

©Mike Ham, 2003. All rights reserved.