Zeitgeist News analyst's prediction: Kemp!
Sunday, August 11, 302 AP
Web posted at 1131 UST.
The Conservative-Cruisian Democrat coalition will choose Thomas Kemp as their nominee for the Presidency, with, perhaps, support from Governor Cryer. So says Zeitgeist News' own political analyst, Patrick Tomlin, interviewed on Gerald Kord's "Sunday" programme this morning.
Herein, an extract from this morning's show:
GERALD KORD: The Conservative-Cruisian Democrat coalition will make their nomination for the Presidency at their September conference, but there is a long race where individual Branches' choose the nomination candidate they prefer, and their votes are tallied at their September conference.
So, why is this the most important preselection race?
PATRICK TOMLIN: Well, though the other right-wing parties might not like me to say this, I think we have to accept that the Conservative and Cruisian-Democrats together are the only threat to the President.
Here in Utania, we have a two-stage Presidential election, and since the President is almost guaranteed a second-round chance, it all hinges on who, out of the remaining parties, will get the most electoral seats to be the second-place party.
GERALD KORD: And, you believe that will be the Conservative candidate?
PATRICK TOMLIN: Yes, absolutely. The Liberal Nationalists, and the Burovians are not a show, and I really don't think the Democrats are yet disciplined enough to pull this off, nor do they have the profile nationally to become the major challenger to the President.
GERALD KORD: So, very quickly, Patrick, which branches would you expect to vote for whom, and why.
PATRICK TOMLIN: Alright. Let's start from the top of the country. Waitaki. Big-money farmers who are more Burovians than fans of Hope, but with the loss of many hard-line conservatives to the Burovians, I say this is Kemp's.
Dansvelt is Hope's already, as is Ujam.
Hamilton, rich-farmers, strong for Hope. Charleston is actually quite a liberal conservative area, which means Kemp is a shoe-in. Gyum'th is Cryer, possibly Kemp. And, of course, we know that Jostt is already a Cryer win.
Alright, so Luka city should be an easy win to Hope, as should Belview. In Okarvits, which is an inner-city, quite poor, but also includes the middle-classes of Luka, I would expect that a lot of members there are more liberal than Hope, more "Kemp-ish".
Moving into Nystonia state... I think it would be fair to say that all the coastal Branches are Cruisian-Democrat dominated, all the branches in that state are 60%+ CDP members, so Cryer has already won them. All except Isaston and U'jama. But, I think the only threat will be in Isaston, where Kemp MIGHT scrape through a win.
Alright, so Shecker, an industrial town, which should mean a lot of hard-line Conservatives. But, no one there has heard of Hope, much, and they still resent him for failing to back the car industry more firmly, so Kemp. Dalesforth, Kemp, and, we already know Mulgrave is Kemp's. In the capital, I would expect Kemp to triumph. He has made a big point of touring the city, or, at least the weathier parts of it, and making his presense felt. Kemp should win that city.
Okay, so, now we're left with only the smaller Branches, Agraam, Tuama-Koltij... all the newer Utani-dominated Conservative and Cruisian-Democrat branches. I don't think Cryer will win any of these, given the strong resentment they have for his "brand" of Cruisian democracy. I also think that David Atosu should have a strong showing in these branches, and possibly even win one or two of them. And, let's not forget that former-Interim President Hope helped to set them all up.
So, I say Savana and Western Utania to Atosu, Kemp for Tuama-Koltij and Hope wins Agraam.
GERALD KORD: So, that works out to Kemp 187, Cryer 139, Hope 130 and Atosu 9.
So, since none is over the half-way mark with 233 branch votes, who will Hope and Atosu support?"
PATRICK TOMLIN: Well, ultimately, Kemp won it overwhelmingly, so Hope must, by convention, support the clearest winner, Kemp. He CAN break with convention, but I doubt this is going to happen with Hope. A winner is a winner, and Kemp is so far ahead I think he's a solid winner.
GERALD KORD: So, is there ANYTHING that Cryer can do to win at this stage?
PATRICK TOMLIN: I don't think so. I think Kemp, as the Conservative Party's first choice, is a clear winner, and the strongest chance at beating the President in the election. I also think that across the coalition parties, he has the widest appeal, the widest support, from farmers in the north, to Utani in the south, he is all-round the best chance the party has at providing a challenge to President Okarvits.
GERALD KORD: What about the chances of Cryer and Kemp becoming allies?
PATRICK TOMLIN: Well, obviously, then the pair of them have 326 branch votes and a clear mandate from the coalition, and together they could gather a lot of the conservative voters. I mean, Liberal Nationalist voters would vote for Cryer in an election because he is in coalition with them in Nystonia, and they like his approach to politics.
Now, that's about 2.2 million votes -- nothing to be scoffed at!!
GERALD KORD: So would Kemp invite Cryer to be his Vice President at the Conference?
PATRICK TOMLIN: I think he will be asking him long before then, but yes. And Cryer would be a fool to not accept, I think.
GERALD KORD: And what about Hope? Any hope for Hope? (Chuckles)
PATRICK TOMLIN: I don't think so. He will probably get support from Atosu, but the end result won't change.
GERALD KORD: So, a Kemp and possibly Cryer opposition to President Okarvits in January, you say.
PATRICK TOMLIN: Yeah, I think Kemp and Cryer would push out all other opposition. It remains to be seen whether they are enough to topple the President.
Conservative Party Website
Kemp for President
Hope for President