Zeitgeist Magazine, Issue 15, Volume 7, 4 September 300 AP

Zeitgeist Magazine, for the story behind the news

Issue 15,
Volume 7,
4 September 300 AP

The Story behind the news.

Economics
A new accounting standard
Enter the "dragon"

Election 300
Poll: Hope's Conservatives on the ropes
Burovians differentiate

Politics
Edging toward chaos

International Kasvria & Savarai Elections Drawing Near

Sport
Football: Round Seven

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What IS a Zeitgeist?

Jerman for "Spirit of the Age". In this case it is to mean the "spirit" of the Utanian people, the magazine reporting the people's thoughts behind the press-releases and reported news.

Hope's Conservatives on the ropes

President Hope's Conservative Party's support has plunged below their early July low to a paltry 13% of the national vote, while the Burovians, Democrats and Nationalists gain, according to the latest Kapur-Zeitgeist national poll.

What a shock for President Hope. No sooner had his hard work touring the hinterland of Utani B'yan yielded an additional seven seats for his Conservative party on their early-July Herald Poll low, when in one week, it appears he has lost five of them. The Conservatives will be reeling from the concussionary blow of losing a massive nine seats and 2% of the popular vote, and handing a secure victory to the USP-PPP opposition coalition. And to add insult to injury, the Burovians have gained their very first seat in the former Conservative heartland of Waitaki.

The Kapur-Zeitgeist poll, based on over 2500 voters

For Conservatives, there will much much soul-searching, says political analyst and poll co-author, Professor David Kapur. "I would imagine a result like this would be the equivalent of a lost election: the Conservatives were expecting some backlash from the I'ana occupation, and the intensive Burovian and Progressive party campaigns, but nothing this dramatic."

Date	FGC	Yan	DSP	Rep	USP	PPP	Lib	UBM	UPP	Dem	LNP	CDP	Con	UNP
Sep4	-	2	1	4	29	43	-	1	7	18	6	8	21	-
Aug28	-	2	1	2	30	40	1	-	6	17	5	6	30	-
Aug7	-	2	-	1	29	44	1	-	2	18	9	7	27	-
July1*	*	2	*	5	30	39	-	*	1	23	-	15	22	*

Total: 140
* July 1 poll conducted by Luka Herald newspaper based on 137 MP's and excluding many minor parties.

And once again, the losses are to the "alternative conservative parties" as reported in Zeitgeist last week. President Hope's gamble to win over voters with the I'ana occupation has apparently exploded in his face. In order to regain lost votes, he will have to fight awfully hard, once more, pushing the conservative party up that long steep hill he conquered back in July.

Only this time, he only has four weeks.

The results speak for themselves. By comparing with previous results, it is clear that this is the worst "virtual seats" result for the Conservative party since polls have been conducted.

In addition, the unique electoral system of Utania has also helped to worsen the blow. "The electoral system of multiple MP's elected from a single electorate results in a virtual parliament hyper-sensitive to small changes in the popular vote", explains Professor Kapur. "The Conservatives lost only 2% of their popular vote, yet that translated into almost one third of their seats."

"The problem for the various conservative parties is that they are performing a 'divide and conquer' upon themselves. Collectively they hold 51% of the popular vote amongst six parties. The opposition USP-PPP coalition only holds 34% of the popular vote, but it is amongst only two parties, making their popularity-per-party ratio much higher, and number of seats in the virtual parliament much higher."

The UBM (Burovians) appear to have the right idea, says Kapur. They have been concentrating their advertising campaign in only Lasanne, primarily the north of the state. The result: one seat, another four on the way, and now 10% of the state vote.

So where did the Conservatives drop the proverbial ball? Professor Kapur finds it is in the following states:

Lasanne, Hope and the party's home state, punished the Conservative party with a 3% drop in the polled vote, though only the loss of one seat to the Burovians in the state's far-north, Waitaki. The Burovians gained their first seat, and another four electorates appear ready to give them more. UBM +4%, Con -3%.

In Nystonia, the Conservatives lost only 2% of the vote, but it translated in giving a seat in the Kapur-Zeitgeist virtual parliament to each of the Cruis-Democrats, the Democrats and the Peoples party. Con -2%, UBM +1%, Dem +1%.

Finally, Utani B'yan also punished the Conservatives with a massive five seat loss to the benefit of the Liberal Nationalists, Cruis-Democrats, Progressive Party (UPP), and two to the Republican party. Con -3%, Dem +1%, UBM +1%, UPP +1%.

The polls above also show that the only truly national parties are the Democrat and Peoples

Parties, whose support is somewhat the same in each state.

The Kapur-Zeitgeist poll does, of course, still have a 2.5% "margin of error" which may entirely swallow the Conservative party loss. The only way to truly know is to wait and see next week. While you can wait, the Conservative party may not be able to.

Related Articles:

Poll: Hope's Conservatives on the ropes

Burovians differentiate
Recent Editions:

Alternative conservatives surge

Interview: The complete Burovian philosophy

Boornal blasts Pres. Hope

The unknown economy

The Military: Utania's latest political tool

Hope faces the skeptical

Previous issues:

So what, the President likes golf?

Stock Exchange:

Stocks continue to stagnate - when will the Govt. release cash controls?