Zeitgeist Magazine, for the story behind the news
Issue 17,
Volume 7,
18 September 300 AP

The Story behind the news.
Edition
Economics
Auranj's bold move


Election 300
Democrat-lead coalition squeaks ahead


Politics
Will the real reformer please stand up?


International Kasvria & Savarai election

Sport
Football: Stemler's shock resignation
Utania's first gold at Vexgames


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What IS a Zeitgeist?

Jerman for "Spirit of the Age". In this case it is to mean the "spirit" of the Utanian people, the magazine reporting the people's thoughts behind the press-releases and reported news.
Democrat-lead coalition squeaks ahead

In a shock development, a right-wing coalition of six very diverse parties could hold power for the first time since polls were taken, according to the latest Kapur-Zeitgeist poll.

The shock development in this week's poll shows a six party coalition of the Democrats, Conservatives, Cruis-Democrats, Liberal Nationalists, Utani Progressive Party and Burovians could have held government by a single seat, as voters apparently walked in droves from the Utani-Saedaj (USP) and Peoples Party (PPP) coalition.

The USP-PPP coalition would have held a combined 62 seats, significantly down on last week's 67, and considerably down on their high of 72 at the beginning of the
The Kapur-Zeitgeist poll, based on over 2500 voters
month.

"The losses by the USP-PPP coalition shows the volatility of the Utanian electoral system", says Professor Kapur. "The USP-PPP have dropped 2% of the vote between them over the past two weeks, yet lost an incredible ten seats in the virtual parliament. This shows that the changes in one party's polled vote are not the only determining factor in how many seats you win - this is also determined by the other parties. In this case, the Democrat, Progressive and Burovian gains have tilted the table against the USP-PPP as well as the Conservatives."

Date FGC Yan DSP Rep USP PPP Lib UBM UPP Dem LNP CDP Con UNP
Sep18
-
2
-
4
24
38
1
7
12
21
6
9
16
-
Sep11
-
2
-
3
30
37
1
3
10
22
2
8
22
-
Sep4
-
2
1
4
29
43
-
1
7
18
6
8
21
-
Aug28
-
2
1
2
30
40
1
-
6
17
5
6
30
-
Aug7
-
2
-
1
29
44
1
-
2
18
9
7
27
-
July1*
*
2
*
5
30
39
-
*
1
23
-
15
22
*
Total: 140
* July 1 poll conducted by Luka Herald newspaper based on 137 MP's and excluding many minor parties.


The most significant movement of support was from the Utani-Saedaj Party to James Angorit's Utani Progressives, who gained 3% of the Utani B'yan state vote from the USP as well as two of the USP's lost six seats. The other four seats were "thrown back into the pool" according to Professor Kapur, because the USP no longer had sufficient support to defeat the party "next in line" for a seat, and were picked up by the Liberal Nationalists, Republicans and Burovians.

Democrat-lead Government?
In other developments, the lead party in the right-wing coalition would be the Democrats, not the Conservatives for the first time since early July. The Conservative party fell further from grace as they lost another six seats, five of them in their home-state of Lasanne upon the news of the departure from the party by political-heavyweight Max Boornal, who left to lead the Burovians. The leadership announcement, and Boornal's leaving the Conservative party earned the Burovians 2% of the state vote and another four seats, bringing their national total to seven seats. Political pundits are refering to it as the "Boornal factor".

The Democrats have been the most silent party of all, quietly gaining and losing support without many rallies and only TV advertising. The Democrat leadership is unknown to the bulk of the population, and next likely President, according to this poll, Louis Campden, says that is by choice.

"The Democratic Party believes that the individuals that run the party are less important that the principles of the party itself", says Campden. "We believe in moderate conservative values, we believe in keeping all Utanians involved in the process of government, and people know this rather than know me or what I had for breakfast this morning. We will never be about that."

Another party that has bounced back is the Liberal Nationalists, whose two-seat position last week was obviously only a temporary setback. Leader Kyle Langley paraded this before a host of journalists at a party function when told of the result on Saturday night.

And a further loss and gain was from the Peoples Party, in Lasanne, to the Cruis-Democrats who have been successful, it appears, with their anti-crime TV advertising. It may yet be a short-lived victory, but right now it gained the CDP 2% of the statewide vote, but no additional seats.

Yet, once more, numerous electorates across the country are marginal wins for several parties. According to Professor Kapur, the winning of a seat was sometimes by mere hundreds of supporters. "In the end, come election day, there is still a very good chance that the polled virtual parliament could differ by up to ten seats. There is many electorates that have marginal seats, and these could mean victory or defeat for either side."

So, the only poll that can be counted on is the final one, the election. Yet as each day gets closer, it appears that the only thing that can be certain about the make-up of the next government of Utania in the meanwhile, is uncertainty.
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Auranj Manufacturing

Readers should be aware that the link between the polls and the actual number of seats won is calculated based on an excel spreadsheet. The poll results for each of the parties for each electorate, based on one polled voter per 10,000 voters, are entered into the spreadsheet and added up for each state then nationally, providing the pie graph of percentage support for each party. This spreadsheet can be made available to other political bodies after this election simply by sending an email to the author: david.kapur@zeitgeist.com.ut

Each electorate's MP seat winners is calculated using the method laid out at the UEC site.

In short, calculating winners is based on largest number of votes: In three MP Virana, the USP won 38%, the Peoples won 22%, Progressives won 20% and the Democrats 4%. Provided the top winner doesn't have double the support of the third place-party, the top three parties get to send one MP each. If the USP had won 41%, or the Progressives only won 18%, then, because the USP has double the support of the Progressives, it gets to send a second MP to Parliament, before the Progressives get to send any.

This then demonstrates how marginal the winning of seats can be.

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