|
Issue 18,
Volume 7, 25 September 300 AP The Story behind the news. |
|
Cover-story
Has Utanian Democracy failed?! Editorial: The UNV's lack of faith! Economics Argent buys-out Gorlandrin Utania's new elite? Election 300 Has Utanian Democracy failed?! The Uncertainty Principle (poll) Where to vote? Politics Power-brokers standing by International The rising star of Auroro Unuigxo Sport Utania's Vexgames bid Football: Is Luka Central unbeatable? |
|
Subscribe to Zeitgeist
Subscriber queries |
|
What IS a Zeitgeist?
Jerman for "Spirit of the Age". In this case it is to mean the "spirit" of the Utanian people, the magazine reporting the people's thoughts behind the press-releases and reported news. |
|
The Uncertainty Principle
The nation is likely to hang in the balance in this week's inaugural election prompting the question what will happen if there is no clear winner?
"If Utania fails to elect a government with a clear majority, and without a President to just call another election, will political chaos ensue?" asks the communiqué. (See Has Utanian Democracy failed?.)
* July 1 poll conducted by Luka Herald newspaper based on 137 MP's and excluding many minor parties. The USP-PPP coalition, with the help of the Republicans, will, according to the Kapur-Zeitgeist poll, hold 67 seats, four short of a majority. A Conservative-lead coalition made up of six parties would hold a collective 70 seats, one short of a majority. This leaves neither coalition clearly in front in the 140-seat parliament. But, there is hope, for six seats have been classified marginal by Professor Kapur because they have less than a one percent lead over another party that didn't win a seat. If they had run an alternative course, then the six-party coalition would gain another three seats, giving them a three seat majority in the Parliament.
Regardless, big gains have been posted since the last poll by the Conservative Party, and the Liberal Nationalists, at the expense of the Burovians, Progressive Party and Democrats. It appears that the swing to the smaller parties are ended, and the counter-swing has begun. Boornal, Angorit and Campden will each be hoping there is little more swing left to go against them. A six party government? What, then, would be the consequences of a six-party coalition government? Zeitgeist Magazine asked several politicians and political commentators and analysts to comment. The overall consensus appears to be that such a coalition would be weaker, though politicians from the six parties, obviously, deny this. "A coalition of six disparate parties, all pulling the course of Government in six different directions could have serious implications for the stability of such a government", says Professor Omara of Nystonia State University's Politics department. "Choosing the caretaker President will be the indicator for the government's stability, with the CDP and Conservatives choosing Hope, with 27 votes, the Democrats and LNP siding with (Democratic Party Leader, Louis) Campden, holding 25 votes. Does anyone know how the Progressives or Burovians would vote? This could stump the coalition before it even begins." President Hope claims otherwise. He says that the coalition will have differences of opinion and no voter should believe it will be a completely trouble-free government. Yet, when the President is selected, he said, the the Parliament will not determine policy so much as "moderate it", lessening the impact of the disparate coalition differences. Max Boornal, leader of the Burovians, is amused by the assumption that his party will simply join the other five parties in coalition. "We have never stated that we will automatically be part of a Conservative-lead coalition. We will make our vote count whereever it is most effective for the people of Utania." The Burovians, or Boornalists as some are starting to say, actually have quite liberal social policies that would be in complete opposition to the Cruis-Democrats, precluding them from such a coalition, says Mr Boornal. Professor Kapur, of Luka University, maintains that the only stable government will be the Utani Sædaj-Peoples coalition joined by the Democrats. "They would hold a very stable 86-seat coalition, effectively ending all considerations of alternatives." He says he also has concerns about the Liberal Nationalists and the Conservatives in the same coalition, as they are the "antithesis of eachother", one supporting free-trade, the other total protectionism. Either way, the polling booths will open on Wednesday morning at 9am, and thousands of voters are expected to charge into the booths to be "the first" Utanian to ever vote in a federal election. Like the race for the polling booth, the race for the "Crown of Government" is likely to be very hotly contested, very close and very, very interesting. |
|
Readers should be aware that the link between the polls and the actual number of seats won
is calculated based on an excel spreadsheet. The poll results for each of the parties for
each electorate, based on one polled voter per 10,000 voters, are entered into the spreadsheet
and added up for each state then nationally, providing the pie graph of percentage support
for each party. This spreadsheet can be made available to other political bodies after this
election simply by sending an email to the author: david.kapur@zeitgeist.com.ut
Each electorate's MP seat winners is calculated using the method laid out at the UEC site. In short, calculating winners is based on largest number of votes: In three MP Virana, the USP won 38%, the Peoples won 22%, Progressives won 20% and the Democrats 4%. Provided the top winner doesn't have double the support of the third place-party, the top three parties get to send one MP each. If the USP had won 41%, or the Progressives only won 18%, then, because the USP has double the support of the Progressives, it gets to send a second MP to Parliament, before the Progressives get to send any. This then demonstrates how marginal the winning of seats can be. |
|
©Zeitgeist Magazine, 300 AP.
<TECH> ©Mike Ham, 2000. All rights reserved. No reproduction without, at least, tacit approval. ;-) |